Last week was the first sub-.500 week in a while for the “Expert”. But have no fear, an above .500 record this week is on its way. With the 6-7 record last week and losing my best bet, the overall record stands at 66-62-1 and 4-6 in Best Bets. But before I reveal my picks for the week, here are TSB’s “Start ’em/Sit ’em”, for week 13’s Fantasy Football matchups.
QB Start: Matt Cassel – Although Cassel has only thrown for over 300 yds once this season, he has been a TD throwing machine the last 7 weeks. He has an 18-1 TD to INT ratio in those games. This week he is facing a Broncos defense that has given up HUGE fantasy days to just about everyone they have played this season.
QB Sit: Joe Flacco – In 6 career games against the Steelers, Flacco has thrown five TDs against seven INTs and he has been sacked 20 times. That’s not a good sign.
RB Start: Felix Jones – Yes, I said Felix Jones. With Marion Barber ruled out this week against the Colts, Felix will be getting even more carries. Indy’s run defense is giving up over 135 yds per game on the ground. So look for a heavy workload for Felix this afternoon.
RB Sit: BenJarvis Green-Ellis – “Law-firm” is probably a FLEX option for you or a weak RB2. If that is the case, I hope you have another option this week. Everyone knows how good the Jets run defense is. But with safety Jim Leonhard out for the season with a broken leg, I expect tom Brady to throw the ball 40+ times. That doesn’t leave too many carries for “Law-firm”.
WR Start: Dwayne Bowe – Incase you’ve been living under a rock the past month, Dwayne Bowe has gone from being put on the Waiver Wire, to the #1 fantasy WR. Bowe has at least one touchdown in his past seven games with 13 touchdowns over that span. That’s insane! What puts the staple on making Bowe our WR start of the week, in week 10 at Denver, Bowe had 13 catches for 186 yards and two touchdowns. RESULT: ZERO CATCHES
WR Sit: Terrell Owens – No team has held wide receivers to fewer yards or Fantasy points than New Orleans this season. Along with the great pass D of the Saints, T.O. has been sick this week, and oh yeah, his QB is Carson Palmer.
1 PM EASTERN
Bills @ Vikings (-5.5)
I guess all it took was a coaching change for the Vikings to wake up. They had lost 5 straight against the spread till last week. Now AP is going to be a gametime decision, but Toby Gerhart filled in pretty well for him after he got hurt. The Bills are 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the spread. Something has to give here. I’ll take the home team here. PICK: Vikings RESULT: WIN
Browns @ Dolphins (-4.5)
Typical “Vegas Zone” line here. Honesty, this game on paper looks to be about as exciting as watching the grass grow. But by law, I must make a pick here. So I’ll take the Browns. PICK: Browns RESULT: WIN
Jags @ Titans (-3)
Even with the tough loss last week to the Giants, the Jags have been playing well lately and are making a push to win this division. The Titans look like they’ve quit already. They’ve lost 4 straight, and Jeff Fisher seems like he’s trying to get fired so he can take the Cowboys job. PICK: Jags RESULT: WIN
Broncos @ Chiefs (-8.5)
Remember a few weeks ago when the Broncos whooped the Chiefs up at Mile High? You know, when Chiefs coach Todd Haley gave Broncos coach Josh McDaniels the Dikembe Mutombo finger wag after the game when they were to shake hands? Well Haley was pissed cause he thought McDaniels was running up the score. I can’t even imagine what’s going to happen this week when the Chiefs get a lead. I gotta say, I like the Chiefs to cover this week. PICK: Chiefs RESULT: LOSS
Redskins @ Giants (-7)
With the Eagles beating the Texans on Thursday night, the Giants need this win to keep pace for the division lead. The Giants have not covered the spread in the last 3 games. Mostly do to the fact that Eli Manning and company are allergic to the ball. The Skins are on their 3rd or 4th RB this year and McNabb just sucks. I’ll take the G-men here. PICK: Giants RESULT: WIN
Bears (-5) @ Lions
Every week I wait for the Bears to implode. But it’s not going to be this week against an increasingly terrible Lions club. They were so promising about a month ago, but now 3rd stinger Drew Stanton steps in under center. The Bears D should force a lot of turnovers this week and look for Cutler to chuck it deep all game long. BEST BET PICK: Bears RESULT: LOSS
49ers @ Packers (-9)
This line can’t be high enough. I expect a huge day from Rodgers in a romp. Something like 37-17. PICK: Packers RESULT: WIN
Saints (-7) @ Bengals
I never like laying a TD on the road. Are the Saints going to win? YES. Are they going to cover? NO. *Carson Palmer will lead the Bengals to the back door cover with a monstrous garbage time 2nd half. PICK: Bengals RESULT: WIN *Did I call it?
4 PM EASTERN
Falcons (-3) @ Bucs
The Falcons are firing on all cylinders right now. The Bucs are playing well too, but I don’t think they have the offensive weapons they need to beat the Falcons. PICK: Falcons (Guaranteed 23-20 final and the push) RESULT: WIN
Raiders @ Chargers (-13)
Here we go again with the Chargers. Which team is this? The 1st half team that couldn’t even punt the ball, or the 2nd half team that is just racking up monster yards and points each and every week? I think it’s the latter. SD at home is a virtual lock. I’ll lay the wood here. McFadden has just 18 carries and like 25 yds in the last 2 weeks. I look for that to continue. PICK: Chargers RESULT: LOSS
Panthers @ Seahawks (-5)
Even God doesn’t even care about this game. PICK: Panthers RESULT: LOSS
Cowboys @ Colts (-5.5)
Hmmmm, I gotta say that the ‘Boys showed me a lot of heart last week. They actually looked like they were having fun and wanted to be there. Even though they lost to the Saints, they looked good. The Colts are sooooo banged up it’s not even funny. But they do have Peyton Manning. I like the Boys to cover here, but lose. 24-20 sounds like the final to me. PICK: Cowboys RESULT: WIN
Rams (-3.5) @ Cards
I really hope that Derrick Anderson is going to put his heart and soul into this game like he does every other week. Because if he doesn’t, Larry Fitzgerald might just kill himself. If there’s ever a game where I like the Cards, it’s this one. Anderson is going to come out like gang busters, trying to save his job….again. I’m going with my gut here, and not my head….obviously. PICK: Cards RESULT: LOSS
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Steelers @ Ravens (-3)
That foot of Big Ben’s really worries me. I just don’t see how he’s going to be able to scramble and buy time. That’s his strong suit and he’s going to be running for his life from Ray-Ray all night. I gotta say, I really like the Ravens in this one. PICK: Ravens RESULT: LOSS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Jets @ Patriots (-3.5)
I like the Patriots in this one. Now that Jim Leonhard is out, I think that Aaron Hernandez is going to have a big game, just like he did in the first matchup between these two teams. Tom Brady has been playing really well this season, and he might be playing even better without Moss. I don’t see the Jets getting any help from the Pats in this game like they have been getting from the other teams the last few weeks. PICK: Pats RESULT: WIN