Follow me on twitter for updates and Q&A @JorelPetree
- The Star* rating is how much I like that team against the spread. 14* is my favorite pick.
- The bold team indicates the team I like against the spread. (ATS)
- The CAPITAL team is the home team.
O/U – Over/Under
ATS – Against the Spread
DOG – Underdog
CON – Conference
DIV – Division
SU – Strait Up
**LOCK** 14 **************
Denver Broncos -10 over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS by 20
I am letting you know in advance about the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning; With their second half schedule they will be on my **LOCK** list for the rest of the year. (Nov 5th) Think I am bias? Just know that you heard it here FIRST at TotalSportsBlog.com Looking at the history and trends going into this game, the Chiefs dominate this series at home. I am throwing all trends out the window as Peyton Manning is now a Bronco. Kansas City does a great job at defending the pass but they are terrible in the rushing yards against category. The Broncos lost Willis McGahee who went down due to injury. Most people think this was a big blow to the offense. I am a fan of Ronnie Hillman and he was compared to Darren Sproles in this years draft. Peyton will be able to set him up in one on one situations and find success with his rookie running back. Denver is my pick to win the Superbowl and too much to handle for the 1-9 Chiefs.
Throwing the trends away this week as Peyton Manning is in his first year as a Bronco, all trends point to Kansas City.
New England Patriots -7 over NEW YORK JETS by 21
New England did take a big blow to the stomach last week losing their top player in Gronkowski. Most people say that 7 points is too much when your best player goes down. Last I checked the Pats best player is the champion under the helm. Tom Brady will be more than ready to face the Jets 21st ranked defense in points against. New England’s new addition with Aqib Talib makes their defense that much better. They are going to put a lot of pressure on the Struggling Sanchez and handle the Jets wide receivers in man to man coverage. It’s about that time where you hit the couch after stuffing your face to watch the Patriots Masacre! of the Jets in New York. Brady for your turkey day MVP
- New York is 2-11 ATS when playing at home against New England
**LOCK** 12 ************
Carolina Panthers -3 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES by 10
Philadelphia has become the worst team in their division and now with Mike Vick and Lesean McCoy out another week, “it’s not looking good for the home team.” Philly has allowed an average of 30 points over their last five games and the Panthers will be hungry on offense. They have not been able to get much of a running game going, and when Cam Newton puts up near 100+ yards on the ground, they are undefeated. Philly will be starting a rookie quarterback against an athletic Carolina defense, who is starting to mesh. Carolina will be able to force turnovers and make enough plays on offense to get an early and comfortable lead.
**LOCK**11 **********(UPSET ALERT)
DETROIT LIONS +4 over Houston Texans by 6
Detroit is hosting a monster in the Houston Texans who are coming off of a huge offensive performance. One thing I know from experience is Ford Field will be going nuts and very loud! Home field is going to play a big advantage in this match-up. Every thanksgiving trend is completely in the Texans corner. Not today my friends as the Lions are from the same DIV as the Green Bay Packers who handled the Texans a few weeks ago. One key injury is Jonathan Joseph the Texans #1 corner is out. Megatron is going to have a huge day and get him self some turkey. The Lions are playing solid football and are very scary on offense. They also have a fast defense who can get after Arian Foster and slow him down enough to get a victory. Mikel Leshoure has found rhythm, now they just need Calvin to start scoring. Detroit is in a must win at home on primetime television. It’s about that time you put the Turkey in the oven and today on thanksgiving the Lions will cook the Texans like thanksgiving Turkey!
- No good Lions trends
10********** (UPSET ALERT)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +1 over San Francisco 49ers by 3
New Orleans is hot and have now covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They have been able to get their running game going by rotating each of their three backs. New Orleans will come into this contest with a similar game plan used by the New York Giants against. The Saints will be able to get out to an early lead at home behind the #4 ranked scoring offense in the league. They are averaging almost 400 yards per game through the air and only 94 yards per game on the ground. New Orleans has looked much better running the ball as they rotate all three running backs and keep them fresh. This is my game of the week to watch as the Saints are very hungry and need this game much more than the 49ers. I’ll take the Saints at home on revenge from last years playoff loss 36-32 in a big win to get into the playoff hunt.
- New Orleans is 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 games
- Drew Brees is 8-0 ATS in his last 8 games against opponents off of back to back wins
- New Orleans is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games at home
Pitsburgh Steelers -1 over CLEVELAND BROWNS by 7
Pittsburgh is now a game back of the Baltimore Ravens and they cannot mess around in these easier division games. Charlie Batch will be under the helm, which is not as bad as people are making it out to be. Batch has been in the Steelers back up role for years and he understands the system. Which is much better then a rookie or new Quarterback being thrown into the mix. The Steelers still have a top defense in the NFL and will cause major problems for both rookies in Weeden and Richardson. Pittsburgh has no reason to panic as there are only three teams who are in the wild card playoff hunt. They have a pretty easy schedule to finish the year. They will be able to scrap out a fewcwins in just enough time to make the playoffs and for Big Ben’s return.
- Pittsburgh has won 16 of their last 17 games verse Cleveland
- Pittsburgh is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS when not favored by 8 or more points against the Browns
- Batch is 5-2 SU and ATS for the Steelers
DALLAS COWBOYS -3 over Washington Redskins by 6
I know its like a rollercoaster when watching Romo perform, but on thanksgiving day Romo has some unbelievable numbers. Him and Dez Bryant are coming off of a huge performance and it looks as if they are clicking. The Cowboys have found a run game and they will need to use it against the Redskins solid rushing defense. Romo is up against the leagues 29th ranked secondary and will have yet another big turkey day! Felix Jones is running the ball hard and the Cowboys offensive line is improving. Robert Griffin III is a wild card, but the Cowboys have an ace up their sleeve in Demarcus Ware one of the leagues best pass rushers. Robert Griffin you are the man and will have your day, but not today on your first Thanksgiving game. Look for the trends to fall in place here on turkey day as the Cowboys enter this competition with back to back wins and will go for three straight.
- Tony Romo is 5-0 on turkey day with 14 touchdowns!
7 ******* (UPSET ALERT)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +1 over Atlanta Falcons by 3
Tampa Bay does have one of the leagues worst secondaries, but Julio Jones is hurting and doesn’t look to be a factor in this contest. The Bucs will be able to focus on Roddy White and bring pressure on Matt Ryan. One thing I have noticed watching the Falcons, is they struggle versus teams who can establish a run. Tampa has been running the ball great this year behind fantasy footballs #1 ranked running back. This game is going to be a heated battle, but if Tampa gets their offense rolling early the “Dirty Birds” could be in trouble.
- Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
- Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against Tampa Bay
6 ****** (Upset Alert)
St. Louis Rams +1.5 over Arizona Cardinals by 7
You may think that the Rams are bad because they battled with an even worse New York Jets football team. Don’t forget that they just came off of a huge overtime game verse San Francisco. They played great in a game verse the league’s top defense and hung in almost long enough to win the game. They have had a very tough schedule their last 5 games and are a much better team than the stats say. This is a great match-up for St. Louis and they should be able to get their first win in almost two months. Arizona has not found much offense at all and the Rams play good defense. They can stop the run and get after the Quarterback. The Rams also can shut down good wide receivers with Cortland Finnegan.
- Jeff Fisher is 25-10 ATS when taking points against opponents with losing records
- Arizona Cardinals are 0-13 ATS as division FAV against opponets off of a SU FAV loss.
Baltimore Ravens -1 over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS by 4
Baltimore is playing great defense this year even with the injuries they have suffered. They have now forced 8 turnovers in their last 3 games. This is not a good situation for the struggling Rivers as he has thrown 14 interceptions and only 17 touchdowns this year. Look for the Ravens to pound the ball out and work the play action. They will be able to get an early lead and handle the Chargers. San Diego seems to struggle with this division and also any smash mouth teams.
- San Diego is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
- San Diego is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
4 **** (Upset Alert)
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 over Tennessee Titans by 1
Jacksonville has now been sparked with Chad Henne at the helm. He was amazing last week and looked as if him and Justin Blackmon have been throwing together for years. Doing this all verse at top 3 defense statistically going into last Sundays matchup. Tennessee has struggled with teams that can throw the ball and are ranked 26th in the NFL in passing yards against. Henne should be able to pick up where he left off and pull an upset on Sunday.
- Tennessee is 4-10 in their last 14 games ATS
- Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at home
3 ***(Upset Alert)
Minnesota Vikings +? over the Chicago Bears by 3
Right now there is no Vegas spread as they are not sure who the starters are for Chicago. Chicago is struggling offensively and last week Jon Gruden quoted “it’s just not fair to have to play quarterback for this offense.” They are terrible upfront at both run and pass blocking. Minnesota’s Chad Greenway and Jared Allen are going to cause problems for the Bears offensively. Minnesota is playing better team football right now and has more momentum going into this game. They are only down 1 game to both Green Bay and Chicago and looking to move into a possible first place tie between them and the Packers. It looks like Cutler should play which will make Minnesota the underdog. Take the points and the better offense in week 12.
- Chicago 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games
2 ** (Upset Alert)
Green Bay Packers +3 over NEW YORK GIANTS by 3
New York has been struggling on offense and Eli has really upset his fantasy football owners. He has caused 7 turnovers and only thrown 1 touchdown in his last 4 games. They are coming off of a bye week and may struggle finding some offensive rhythm early in this game. The Pack will get out early and not look back. Green Bay is on fire and averaged 30 points a game over their last 5. Three of those games against quality defensive opponents. I do believe New York will find their offense and turn it around this year, but they are not ready for Green Bay as the pack are going to light up the scoreboard.
- Green Bay is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
- New York Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
1 * (Upset Alert Buffalo)
Buffalo Bills +3 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS by 4
Buffalo is a tough team and has really battled in their last 5 games. They hung around in the game against Houston and almost pulled it off against the Patriots. They are very athletic on offense and also get Fred Jackson back this week. The Colts are struggling very badly this year on defense and Buffalo can move the ball. The Bills will pull the upset here and put up a lot of points. There are only three teams as of now in the Wild Card race but if Buffalo pulls this upset win they can increase their chances and move within a couple of games for a wild card spot. Buffalo and the points as they will run all over the Colts 21st ranked rush defense.
- No good trends
CINCINNATI BENGALS -8.5 over Oakland Raiders by 17
Oakland has not covered 9 points in each of their last 3 games. They are going across the country from the west coast to the east and playing in the early game. It will feel like its morning and they will get out to a slow start. Oakland is a warm weather team playing in cold conditions. Oakland is still missing RB Darren McFadden and will struggle in a match up versus the Bengals.
MIAMI DOLPHINS +3 over Seattle Seahawks by 4
Currently have 367* out of 729*
Against the Spread Record 52-52-1
Lock Picks are 17-9-1