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NFL Picks Week 11

November 14, 2013 by

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Coming off a big week in football as the Detroit Lions take the reins as they top the NFC North, the Jaguars and Buccaneers get their first wins, and big injuries across the board. This week is filled with in-state and division rivalry games, games of which will bring the cream to the top. Take my picks to the bank as this week I am taking some upsets but plenty of sure-fire winners.

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Andrew Luck

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

The Colts are coming off a schlacking by Tavon Austin and the St. Louis Rams last week. QB Andrew Luck just wasn’t himself as he threw three picks and lost a fumble against the aggressive Rams defense. Look for this Colts team to bounce back against a beat-up Tennessee squad. With Jake Locker out for the season, I see little hope for this Titan team.

Fantasy Advice: Boom goes the dynamite. Andrew Luck bounces back with a vengeance.

calvin

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers

Detroit, my hometown team, my heart, and now the leaders of the NFC North. The town is so excited to finally see their team on top of the division—it’s been awhile. Pittsburgh hasn’t been the threat they’ve historically been, but they still have the weapons to do some damage on the offensive side of the ball.  Big Ben has continued to struggle but guys like Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown continue to put up solid numbers. The Lions are a currently a 2.5 point favorite in the Steel City.  {Click here} to check current football lines. Pittsburgh will give the Lions a short-lived run for their money come Sunday.

Fantasy Advice: Big games from the obvious Bell and Brown, but watch for TE Heath Miller as covering Tight Ends has historically been a downfall for the Lions defense.

geno-smith-run2

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

In-state rivalries are always fun—even with teams like the Jets and Bills. The Bills have exhausted their offense due to injuries and continue to struggle when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard. QB EJ Manuel hasn’t been the same since coming back from injury and his scapegoats Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller have struggled the past couple of weeks to do absolutely anything out of the backfield. Even though the Bills are favored on Mobile NFL Spreads, I like the Jets this week.  The Jets are coming off a well-rested bye week and are going to use that built-up energy against a battered and bruised Bills team. The Jets continue their one-two punch of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory, as well as catch the Bills with their pants down as Geno Smith takes some keepers up field.

Fantasy Advice: RB Chris Ivory does some damage on the ground.

cutler

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

Bears QB Jay Cutler clearly wasn’t 100% last week. Hobbling and hopping on one foot as he tried to relieve pain to his left groin tear after passing the ball. Jay already throws off his back foot, let alone limit him to one leg while he’s bruised up. Give the guy a couple of weeks to heal up and pray to God backup Josh McCown keeps you in the hunt for the NFC North (or at the very least, a wildcard bid). Lean more heavily on Forte through these weeks with Cutler banged up. At 4-5, Baltimore clearly isn’t the caliber of their champion selves. The team needs to give more of the weight of the offense to their stud RB Ray Rice and less on their overpaid lackluster Quarterback.

Fantasy Advice: RB Matt Forte carries the weight of the Bears offense on his shoulders.

Cincinnati Bengals v Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Gio Bernard has truly stepped up and become the starting Running Back for the Cincy Bengals. The guy is so shifty and quick, it almost always takes a group-tackling to take him down. He and WR AJ Green are the two consistent players that this Cincinnati team can rely on week in and week out. On the defensive side of the ball, DT Geno Atkins is out for the year, but they still have some big names and big talent they can rely on to get the job done. The team isn’t 4-0 at home for nothing. Cleveland has been struggling since trading off Trent Richardson. Sure there are plenty out there in the media that felt trading him was a great move for the Browns, I’m just not one of them. Their rushing attack has severely declined with Willis McGahee now filling in the void.

Fantasy Advice: WR AJ Green making DB Joe Haden and the Cleveland secondary look stupid.

eagles_foles_1024w1

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

I know I was hatin’ on QB Nick Foles last year but this kid is the real deal. You know you’ve got a great Quarterback when he can make guys like Riley Cooper look like studs. It’s about time the guy has more tenacity on the field than at a Kenny Chesney concert. RGIII has still been inconsistent in leading the Redskins since coming back from his repaired ACL. The team needs to lean more on discounted Beast Mode, Alfred Morris.

Fantasy Advice: QB Nick Foles is unconscious.

Mike-James-Bucs-Martin

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay comes off their first win of the season in this matchup against a struggling Atlanta team. Coming off an ass-wupping from the Panthers, the Falcons need to make some adjustments on both sides of the ball. Without WR’s Julio Jones and Roddy White, this is a completely different offense. Matt Ryan has little to work with in Douglas and Gonzo. Tampa Bay lost their second starting RB for the year after Mike James shattered his ankle in last week’s win. They have a rookie QB and a third string RB, the rest of the season doesn’t look too promising.

Fantasy Advice: QB Matt Glennon

rashard-mendenhall

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is, well, Jacksonville. Like Tampa Bay, they’re coming off their first win of the season in this week’s matchup. The Jaguars are better off with QB Chad Henne, but not by much. It’s time to start looking for a new franchise Quarterback. Pay however much you have to pay to change the face of the team and start winning some games. Offense isn’t everything, but they lack a whole hell of a lot all-around. Cards RB Mendenhall is back in action and ready to take out his newly found health on the Jaguars defense. If QB Carson Palmer can’t do it, leave it up to Mendenhall this week.

Fantasy Advice: RB Rashard Mendenhall back to full-health and against the worst defense in the league.

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

The 2-7 Houston Texans are not the team the world thought they would be this year—myself included. Taking Arian Foster early in the first round was risky, but I didn’t think it would be catastrophic. Prior to being put on IR, the guy was getting less and less carries every week as Tate has busted onto the scene and fought for a starting gig. If there is one back that can still be an every down back in the NFL, its Arian Foster. He’s proven that in past years, but this year his body couldn’t keep up—especially since he started the year banged up. Tate is fighting for a starting gig whether it be in Houston or elsewhere. Look for him to do some damage against a less than stellar Oakland defense.

Fantasy Advice: RB Ben Tate fills the role of starting RB with a bang.

PhilipRiversFace

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Philip Rivers is quietly having a great season. With 2700 yards passing, a 105.9 passer rating, 18 touchdowns, and only 7 picks, Rivers is quietly one of the most  accurate QB’s in the NFL this year. Coming off a close game going toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning and company, the Chargers look to do work against a struggling Dolphins team. Miami can’t seem to close out a game—even against a winless Buccaneer squad. Look for them to have similar problems against Rivers and friends.

Fantasy Advice: QB Philip Rivers and sleeper RB Danny Woodhead catching out of the backfield.

Frank-Gore

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

This is one of my favorite matchups of the week. Taking two top-tier teams and having them collide in an offensively driven battle. The question is whether or not it will be a defensive struggle or battle with these inconsistent D’s. Drew Brees has been flawless as he’s already over 3000 yards with 25 TD’s and only 7 interceptions. In contrast, the QB on the other squad, Colin Kaepernick, has had expectations dwindle gradually throughout the year. Coming off a offensive struggle or defensive battle in a loss to Carolina, Kaepernick needs to step up and get this offense geared in the right direction. Since he hasn’t been doing his part, RB Frank Gore has proven he can bear the load. I’m taking the Niners with the upset as Aldon Smith fires in pistol in celebratory fashion.

Fantasy Advice: RB Frank Gore continues to be the go-to guy, likewise for TE Jimmy Graham.

matt flynn

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Who would have thought that the Packers would be going through a QB carousel this time of year? After losing Rodgers, backup Seneca Wallace went down last week, they were left with few options. So the Packer organization picked up the phone and called their new/old lifeline, former Packer backup Matt Flynn. Personally, I would have loved for them to get Favre to dust off the Wrangler jeans and get back into the huddle, but that’s just me. Matt, its your time to finally step up and show that you weren’t just a one-game pony (the big performance against the Lions a couple seasons ago).

Fantasy Advice: QB Matt Flynn back in action as a Packer and tearing up the weak Giants defense.

Beast-Mode

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has had some close-call bumps in the road but this matchup won’t be one of them. Seattle remains atop the NFC at 9-1 and continue to dominate on both sides of the ball. With Beast Mode and Russell Wilson playing on-point, the Seahawks will continue to roll atop the NFC into the post-season. Minnesota has practically given up on this season with keeping Christian Ponder at QB and not making any moves at the trade deadline to improve the squad. They’ve got the best RB in the NFL, but they may need to part ways to rebuild this team. They’re the only team in the NFC North that isn’t worth a damn.

Fantasy Advice: Taste the rainbow: Beast Mode doing work.

wes welker

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

The AFC West provides the best matchup of the week: the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs taking on the one-loss Denver Broncos at Mile High.  Peyton got banged up last week in a close game against the Chargers but looks to continue the stellar season he’s been having against the undefeated Chiefs. With targets like Welker, Thomas, Decker, and Julius Thomas, Peyton has the tools necessary to make a run at a ring. Don’t forget about RB Knowshon Moreno. The guy has had a great season providing relief for Manning and providing a great one-two punch on the ground and in the air. Andy Reid has lead Kansas City to a flawless season thus far, but can they continue the run? With Dwayne Bowe recently charged with possession, it could take away a top target in the passing game for Alex Smith. Jamaal Charles needs to step up and continue to dominate to keep the Chiefs atop the rankings going into the post-season.

Fantasy Advice: QB Peyton Manning steps up against the undefeated Chiefs.

stevanridley

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

Tom Brady and the Patriots have finally come around and gradually improved. It’s been a tough road for Brady this season dealing with a very young WR core and injuries with studs Gronk and Amendola, even the early loss of receiving RB Shane Vereen. The chips were stacked against Brady’s Bunch but they still are 7-2 and first in the AFC East division. With a healthy Gronk and Amendola back in the lineup, the possibilities are endless for this youthful New England team. Carolina is on a five-game win streak currently and QB Cam Newton is in matured form. With Cam at the helm and a banged up New England secondary, Carolina stands a chance. I just don’t see it happening if Brady is on-point like he usually is.

Fantasy Advice: RB Stevan Ridley swooping in and cleaning up the points as he spends some time in the end zone.

 

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