NBA Finals Heat Spurs Game 3

The San Antonio Spurs won Game 5 of the NBA Finals, sticking to the win-lose-win-lose pattern we’ve seen throughout this series. San Antonio now leads the series 3-2.

The Heat are 6-0 this postseason following a loss, and have won every game by double digits.

Every analyst I’ve heard so far is picking Miami to win tonight’s game. Not a single one is even giving San Antonio a chance, and I think they’re crazy.

It seems that every time the media completely sides with one team (Miami in this case), the game never seems to be as lopsided as it gets made out to be. I know football and basketball are two totally different sports, but the media’s opinion in this game reminds me of the 2007 Super Bowl between the New York Giants and the undefeated New England Patriots.

Everyone outside of the New York area picked the Patriots to win that game, and we all know how that ended up. Don’t count out San Antonio just yet.

But back to tonight’s game.

Miami is going to have to be better defensively if the want to play in a Game 7. The Spurs shot 60% from the floor in Game 5. Every Spurs starter scored at least 15 points, and Danny Green continued to rain in 3s. (6-10 from deep).

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If San Antonio shoots 60% from the floor again tonight, they’ll win. It’s that easy.

The Heat have to close out better on 3-point shooters. When Green, Gary Neal, and the rest of San Anotnio’s shooters are knocking down 3s, the paint opens up which allows easy post ups for Tim Duncan and driving lanes for Tony Parker.

The Spurs are an extremely efficient offensive team, so Miami has to get them out of their rhythm.

Don’t expect the Spurs to change their game plan up much.

On the offensive end of court, look for LeBron James to be even more aggressive. He and Wade have to continue to attack the rim and make the defense collapse on them so they can kick it out to open 3-point shooters.

For Miami to win, their role players are going to have to make some shots. Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers, and Norris Cole combined to score 14 points in Game 5. That won’t cut it tonight.

The Spurs have done a pretty good job defensively all series long, and I don’t expect them to make many changes for tonight’s game.

Prediction

The Heat have played their best basketball recently following losses and when their backs are up against the wall. Tonight’s game seems like the ideal situation for them to play great. If Miami gets an early lead, Coach Popovich could put in his second stringers and give his starters some rest for Game 7. The Spurs definitely could pull of a W tonight, but I think we’ll see a Game 7 Thursday night.

Heat 113 Spurs 98

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Follow me on Twitter: @mlukes14

[Mike Lucas Sports]

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