So week 3 in the NFL ended in complete controversy. The Seattle Seahawks Hail Mary on the last play against the Green Bay Packers, cost gamblers across the nation estimated $150M – $250M on one play! Not to mention it left 65,000 fantasy GM’s with a big fat L. With that being said, it is almost impossible to pick games when the wrong teams are winning. The replacement refs have changed momentum and really messed up these first 3 weeks in the NFL. On the bright side it looks that this controversy finally got the NFL to settle down and come to a deal with the REAL officials. Tonight’s game will have normal officiating!
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– The Star* rating is how much I like that team against the spread. 10********** is my #1 pick/lock
– The bold team indicates the team I like against the spread. (ATS)
– The CAPITAL team is the home team.
Gamblers Key
O/U – Over/Under
ATS – Against the Spread
DOG – Underdog
FAV – Favorite
CON – Conference
DIV – Division
SU – Strait Up
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All lines will be used from Bovada
10 ********** Lock of the WEEK
New England Patriots -4 1/2 over the BUFFALO BILLS by 20
This week the biggest lock of the year is the New England Patriots, they are coming off of back to back losses. This is the best team in the business off of a loss. The Patriots are also coming off of a controversial loss verses Baltimore. Nothing matters in this game besides the fact that New England is coming for blood. They will look to embarrass everyone because of how they lost last week. This is going to be an absolute MASSACRE!!!
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Trends
– New England is 8-2 within the DIV.
– New England is 16-1 SU against the Bills
9 *********
DENVER BRONCOS -6 1/2 over Oakland Raiders by 10
Here is a picture of Manning throwing his deuces up to Damaryius Thomas, because that is what he will be doing all game long. Peyton Manning has only been under .500 once in his career and that was his rookie season. Oakland is 20th on defense at stopping the run, and 26th at stopping the pass. Peyton Manning looks like he finally clicked in the 2nd half of last weeks game. The 26th pass defense in the league will get shredded by the Direct T.V. fairy. Big Ben put up over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns verse this defense.
Trends
– Oakland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
8 ********
Ohio State +3 over MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS by 4
“Very similar guys,” Meyer said. “They’re both competitive human beings. They’re both very talented people. Braxton has more talent. Tim is probably more of a grinder.” Read that article and tell me anything different, when it comes to these big games. Braxton Miller and the points in this one.
Does Denicos Allen and Max Bullough have what it takes, to stop Braxton Miller?
Trends
– Ohio State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games vs Michigan State
– Michigan State is 2-5-1 ATS against Ohio State in its last 8 games.
7 *******
San Francisco -4 1/2 over NEW YORK JETS by 7
Tough two weeks for the 49ers going to the East coast back to back. The J-E-T-S just lost Revis Island and it is being replaced with Joe McKnight, their backup running back. San Francisco is a much better team then they showed last week. This matchup is in favor of the 49ers as they should be able to move the ball through the air.
Revis Island looking more like Gilligan’s Island with McKnight moving to corner!
Trends
– San Francisco is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
– San Francisco is 12-0 ATS mark in games off a SU favorite loss
6 ******
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS -11 1/2 over Baylor Bears by 21
191.2 is the number that makes me love the Mountaineers! that is Geno Smith’s QB rating he also has zero interceptions. Geno Smith is Heisman’s candidate, and he is going to make a strong run for the trophy. Baylor is ranked 116th in Div 1 NCAA with 315 yards against. Geno Smith is going to have a monster day.
Trends
– Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
– West Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
5 *****
STANFORD over Washington +7 by 1
The Stanford Cardinals are coming off of a huge emotional victory over USC Trojans. Washington has a stingy defense and they are ranked 14th in the country at defending the pass. Stanford is a fairly balance team on offense but they will struggle through the air. Washington will keep this game close, with a potential upset.
Stanford upsets USC
Trends
– The last 8 teams that beat the AP #1 ranked team in the country are 1-7 ATS playing on the road their following game
– Stanford is 1-5 ATS after playing USC
– Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
4****
Cinncinati Bengals -3 over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS by 7
Andy Dalton is the #1 Quarterback in fantasy football heading into week 4 of he NFL. This offense is putting on an air show, with a great controlled running game. Jacksonville is a terrible 30th in the league in rushing yards against, and 21st in the league at defending the pass. JVille is still trying to find rhythm on offense as they will not be able to keep up in this game. Cincy will take control of the scoreboard and put the points up.
Trends
– Jacksonville is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
3***
New York Giants +1 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES by 4
Can Vick avoid this pressure?
Last week they brought the heat on Mike Vick, he was knocked down a lot. Look for the Giants to attack with the same game plan. The New York Giants are hitting on all cylinders on offense, as they handled the Carolina Panthers with both Back-up RB and WR. Not to mention they are coming off of 10 days rest. They get Hakeem Nicks back and Ahmad Bradshaw. The GGGGGmen will get to business in Philly.
Trends
– The defending Champions are 6-1 ATS when facing a team who was just upset.
– NY Giants are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
– Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
– Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
2**
ATLANTA FALCONS over Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 by 3
Can Cam Newton step it up for Carolina and be that wild card?
Carolina is coming off of 10 days rest and matches up well offensively against Atlanta. Atlanta’s defense is ranked 24th in yards against. Carolina will be able to control the clock and keep this a close game. They also know that this is a must win to get back on track. Atlanta is the better team across the board, but Cam Newton is always a wild card.
Trends
1*
Seattle Seahawks -3 over ST. LOUIS RAMS by 6
Seattle is playing great defense, and are coached very well. The spread should be closer to 7. St. Louis has been almost extinct in the passing game. The Rams only hope is to find success in the running game, which Seattle will be ready for. The Seahawks are going to move the ball and pound it out with Lynch. St. Louis Rams have a lot of work to do to become a better team.
Seattle won’t need the refs for a free win this week, they will get it in pure domination.
Trends
– St. Louis is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
– St. Louis is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
– St. Louis is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Seattle
Follow me on twitter for updates and Q&A @JorelPetree
