What a wild week 6 in the NFL, as the BYE teams cashed in a perfect 4-0 ATS. There have been some key injuries the past two weeks leaving the Super Bowl run wide open for teams.
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– The Star* rating is how much I like that team against the spread. 14* is my favorite pick.
– The bold team indicates the team I like against the spread. (ATS)
– The CAPITAL team is the home team.
Gamblers Key
O/U – Over/Under
ATS – Against the Spread
DOG – Underdog
FAV – Favorite
CON – Conference
DIV – Division
SU – Strait Up
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13 ************* **LOCK**
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -11over the New York Jets by 20
Again this year New England is coming off of a loss. This is when they come for blood and blow teams out. Especially when they are facing the New York Jets, a team they are not very fond of.
New England looked great last week against a tough Seahawks defense, in Seattle. The rain came down and it messed up Brady’s timing with his Wide Receivers. He had thrown a lot of balls that were uncatchable. The rain came down and Seattle’s production went up. The Patriots offense is ranked #1 in points for and offensive yards. New York is ranked 18th in rushing yards against, and 18th in total yards against. With out Revis Island, the Jets are in trouble, against the Patriots High Powered offense. Not to mention the Jets commander and chief has a terrible 71 QB rating which is the worst in the NFL. Not a good number verse the leagues leading defense in turnovers. New England will be able to establish the run early and have their way with the Jets. New York is ranked 30th in total yards on offense. If they do not get some early points on the board they will be in a lot of trouble verses the upset Patriots.
He is not mad… He is furious!
Trends
– NY Jets are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road
– NY Jets are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games when playing New England
– New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home
– New England is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against NY Jets
– New England is 28-11 ATS off of a loss
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12 ************ **LOCK**
Green Bay Packers -6 over ST. LOUIS RAMS by 14
The Green Bay Packers have finally found their rhythm on offense. It had taken them time to figure out a new game plan around Jordy Nelson. The offense was originally built around Greg Jennings and he had opened up Nelson and their other options. Nelson has now had to learn the X position and become the #1 option, a role he was not used to. This took time but Green Bays offense is now clicking. If and when they get Jennings back, WATCH OUT!! as this offense will steam role. The Rams have played quality defense this year and are ranked 5th in points against. Their big problem is offense as they cannot get a running back into fantasy double digits this year. Dick Jauron is one off the best defensive coaches in the game, he will have a great game plan against the slow Rams offense. They will cause turnovers and get the Packers great field position. Green Bay will d up and their offense completely clicked last week as Rodgers broke his single game record for touchdowns. The Packers will be to much on the scoreboard and 6 points is not enough. They need this win to get back on track and above .500. Green bay heading down to the “show me state” and they will show them what the greatest show on turf really is. Mr. Rodgers in a big victory verse the ST.Louis Rams.
Aaron Rodgers finds rhythm in record breaking night verse Houston
Trends
– St. Louis is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
– St. Louis is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games
– Green Bay is 20-5 SU in its last 25 gam’es
11 ***********
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -6 over the Seattle Seahawks by 17
Last week the New York Giants just had San Francisco’s number. They also had a lot of trends in their corner backing up that the 49ers would come out flat. This is a different week as Jim Harbaugh will get these boys back up and ready for a weak Seattle road team. Seattle could only muster up 41 yards with Marshawn Lynch which is a very bad formula to beat the 49ers. The Giants were able to get the first 100 yard rusher against the 49ers stingy run defense in 23 games. Which is the only formula to beat the 49ers. They cover sideline to sideline very well, with Patrick Willis in the middle. He is one of the leagues most dominate line backers. They are coming off of a big loss going home and will be ready for this Seahawks team. Pete Carroll can get his boys ready for a big game at home, but has fallen short both road trips. They lost to Arizona who is 4th in the NFL in points against and St. Louis Rams who are ranked 5th in points against. Seattle struggles on the road with their rookie Quarterback against good defenses. San Francisco is one of the top defenses in the NFL across the board. Harbaugh will be ready to host Seattle, the Hawks wont be flying in Candlestick as the 49ers defense could keep them out of the end zone all night long.
Patrick Willis flexing on the Seahawks weak offense
Trends
– Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
– San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
– San Francisco is 13-0 off a SU favorite loss (recently 34-0 over NYJ)
10 ********** **LOCK**
New Orleans Saints -3 over the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS by 13
Now back to back weeks for the Saints, I am locking them up. A key addition on defense comes back this week and he is pissed off. Jonathan Vilma will spark the Saints defense, he is exactly what they have been missing. They had a slow rough start this year, and lost to a couple below average teams. In those battles I have seen some great things from Brees on film, and some aggressive mistakes defensively. I always believed on defense if your going to make a mistake, make it aggressively. The Saints are very close now to being the team we are used to seeing over the past few years. They are coming off of a bye and heading down to Tampa Bay in a must win. With this win it can potentially move them into a three way tie for 2nd in the NFC South and get them back on track to winning. (if Carolina wins) New Orleans is ranked #1 on the road at passing. Tampa Bay is ranked 20th at home defending the pass. I think Brees is licking his chops this week studying the Bucs game film. Tampa Bay may have looked like a tough team last week, but they were coming off of a bye and had to stop a one dimensional team in Kansas City. Charles has been their only hope on offense and Greg Schiano drew up a great run defensive game plan to handle the Chiefs. Home Field will not play a big factor in this 3 point spread. The Saints are coming for a big win and off of a bye you better believe the Surgeon lays Tampa Bay’s defense on the table, and gets these boys rolling.
Will Vilma be the spark that New Orleans has been missing on defense?
Trends
– New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
– Tampa Bay is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
– Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against New Orleans
9 *********** LOCK** *UPSET ALERT*
Detroit Lions +6 over CHICAGO BEARS by 3
Detroit played tough and they actually have hope in their secondary with Louis Delmas back in the lineup. The Lions also can get good pressure on the Quarterback with just their four down lineman. Cutler has been getting hit a lot this year, and if the Lions can get to him early they can really frustrate Cutler on primetime TV. The Bears have only covered 6 points once in their last 4 meetings. The Lions are on revenge here going down to Chicago remembering last years 13 to 37 blow out. The Lions will need to play all four quarters in this match up or the game could get out of hand quick. They have been a great second half team, and seem to try and win every game in the closing minuets. One thing Detroit has going for them is they are ranked 9th in total yards against. The Bears have not dominated offense at all this year, with Delmas back in the lineup the Detroit defense will step up to the occasion. The Lions know they have to contain Brandon Marshall, if they do this they will be able to keep this a close game and potentially win late in the game. On paper this might not look like a very good matchup for the Lions, but I have seen very sloppy play out of the Bears and Detroit is slowly but surely coming together as a team. Bell and Leshoure have been a great compliment to each other as they are averaging 3.75 yards per carry. If the Lions pull this victory it evens out the NFC North and will bring everyone within 1 game of first. This is a great Monday Night matchup the Lions will keep it close and try to revenge their big loss last year with an upset.
Can the Lions high powered offense get out to an early lead on Chicago?
Trends
– Detroit is 6-0 ATS in division Monday night games
– Chicago is 0-7 ATS as home favorites on Monday night
8 ******** *UPSET ALERT*
Baltimore Ravens +7 over Houston Texans by 3
This is the game that Joe Flacco gets to silence his critics. He has big game experience and showed they could move the ball through the air on the toughest secondary in football. Baltimore creates match up problems in the passing game, just like the Packers and will be able to move the chains. One key stat in this match up is that the Baltimore Ravens average almost 1 more yard per carry then the Houston Texans. Houston averages 3.8 yards per carry below the Ravens 4.7 per carry, while both defenses allow 3.8 yards per carry. Houston loosing Brian Cushing makes me believe the Ravens can have their way in the ground game, an addition to what the Packers were able to bring to the table. Houston’s home passing rank of 21st needs to improve in this matchup for the Texans to have success. Baltimore with the big game experience is getting to many points and has a potential upset in the making.
Can Ray Rice and the Ravens Ride out their 4.8 yards per carry in an upset?
– Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
– Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
– Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
7 *******
NEW YORK GIANTS -6 over Washington by 10
The Giants offense is hitting on all cylinders, it looks as if the Manning brothers are taking the league over. New York is still on “Cruz Control” and they just embarrassed the 49ers at San Francisco. The Giants have been on the road in three of their last four games. They will be happy coming home with confidence and hosting the leagues last ranked pass defense in yards against. Eli is going to have a feild day, with Domenik Hixon stepping up and Hakeem Nicks coming into this week healthy. Washington has been surviving on the legs of RG3, which they meet their match in New York as the Giants stay active with their front seven defenders. They will be able to contain and slow down RG3 and the Redskins offense, enough for the Giants to light up the score board and take a big double digit home win.
Can the Giants D Line contain RG3?
– NY Giants are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games
– NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
– Washington is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
6 ****** *UPSET ALERT*
CAROLINA PANTHERS +2 over Dallas Cowboys by 3
This year the Dallas Cowboys have had a turnover ratio of -8. Carolina showed some signs of life on defense two weeks ago verses the Seattle Seahawks. They forced four turnovers in their last two games, three of those verses Seattle. Carolina has two weeks to prepare for Dallas and will be ready. Not to mention Dallas was very generous to Ray Rice last week on the road. Carolina does well when they are able to get their running game going. They do look terrible on paper, but they have faced three opponents this year who average close to 28 points a game. The other two Seattle and Tampa Bay they were able to hold to 16 points on defense. Cam Newton plus the points at home with rest. Carolina is looking to prove they can contend and this is a great week to do that verse an average Dallas Cowboys team.
Can the Carolina defense cause enough turnovers to take the home upset verses Dallas?
5*****
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -6 over Arizona Cardinals by 7
Minnesota has dominated this series as they have taken 8 out of the last 10 from Arizona. One key stat is the Arizona Cardinals are 19th in the league at stopping the run. Adrian Peterson will be looking to have a huge day. Arizona has now shown their true colors by dropping two strait to average opponents. The Buffalo Bills and the St. Louis Rams, who were a great test for them offensively as the Rams are playing solid defense this year. Also defensively against the Bills who are electric on offense. They were not able to handle either test, which will make them fall to 4-3 against a great Minnesota Vikings team at home. Arizona has only played well at home and even than they struggle offensively. They are one dimensional as they have not found a running game, this will make it easy for the Vikings to key on Larry Fitzgerald and force punts.
Can Minnesota contain Larry Fitzgerald and frustrate the Arizona offense?
Trends
– Arizona is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
– Arizona is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Minnesota
– Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
– Leslie Frazier is 4-0 ATS when playing off a SU favorite loss
4 ****
BUFFALO BILLS -3 over Tennessee Titans by 6
The Bills have many options on offense and can attack you in many ways. This will be a high scoring game as these are the two worst overall defenses in the league. Buffalo has more rhythm and confidence on offense, this will be the difference maker in this matchup. Tennessee did show signs off life in the running game against the Steelers, but I am not sold on an offense that is giving their rookie the most targets in the passing game. Buffalo will coast to victory and light it up offensively chomping up yards in both the running and passing game.
Can the Bills offense out perform the Titans offense? In this battle of the NFL’s two worst defenses
Trends
– Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
– Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
– Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
– Mike Munchak is 0-5 ATS after a SU ATS win
3 ***
OAKLAND RAIDERS over Jacksonville Jaguars by 6
The Oakland Raiders last week came out with a great defensive plan to rattle one of the leagues best passers Matt Ryan, who had a combined total of 3 interceptions. The Raiders are average on defense, but they host the NFL’s worst offense in Jacksonville Jaguars Not to mention the 25th offense in points for. Oakland has been heating up and battled Pittsburgh at home. They are coming off of a great game verse Atlanta and proved they can play in a big game verse one of the NFL’s best teams. The Raiders crowd will play a key factor and they should be able to keep the Jaguars score to a minimum. The Jaguars are not very good at stopping the run as they are ranked 30th in rushing yards against. Darren McFadden is going to have a monster day and potentially finish the #1 Fantasy Football RB this week. The Raiders should be able to control the clock, get an early lead and cover the 4 points.
Will Darren McFadden slice up the Jaguars terrible defense?
Trends
– Jacksonville is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
– Jacksonville when playing outside the division are 2-8
2**
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 over Cincinnati by 4
The Steelers were caught by surprise last week as Tennessee found their running game with Chris Johnson. They were also able to stop the Steelers from establishing a run. Mike Tomlin will have the Steelers ready with four extra days to prepare. Pittsburgh will get pressure on Andy Dalton and be able to force turnovers. Cincy has not been to stellar on defense allowing 61 points in the divison so far. This is a must win for the Steelers and perfect timing to make a statement verse a struggling Cincinnati Bengals, who have now dropped two strait.
Can the Steelers establish a running game early?
Trends
– Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
– Cincinnati is 3-9-3 ATS in its last 15 games
– Mike Tomlin is 14-7 ATS off of a loss and 9-1 the last 10
– Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 verses Cincy
1*
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 over Cleveland Browns by 6
The Colts have done very well at defending the pass at home. They also are passing very well at home, with a great second half come back against a tough Green Bay Packers team. Andrew Luck is the x factor in this matchup. He is starting to settle down and play football. One scary stat is the colts letting up five yards a carry, and Trent Richardson could take full advantage. There is only so much you can do in the running game and that’s where Luck will make up for the difference. Yes last week the browns pulled the home upset, but the Bengals are not playing great football right now. This should be an easy victory for the Colts.
Good luck Cleveland
Trends
– Cleveland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
– Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Follow me on twitter for updates and Q&A @JorelPetree
Currently have 116* out of 215*
Current Record 20-14
Lock Picks are 5-3
