JP’s Week 11 NFL *14 Star* Picks Against the Spread

Alright Family, Friends and Fans this is going to be a crazy week in football, as the public looks to bet one way, but our film study here at TSB yet again has us going against the grain in the majority of the games. This week I am hooking you up with 5 **LOCKS** and also 5 UPSET ALERTS!!! I am feeling confident this week as I was able to put extra study into my picks. Hence why my picks are being published so late this week and I apologize for that.

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The Star* rating is how much I like that team against the spread. 14* is my favorite pick.
The bold team indicates the team I like against the spread. (ATS)
The CAPITAL team is the home team.

Gamblers Key
O/U – Over/Under
ATS – Against the Spread
DOG – Underdog
FAV – Favorite
CON – Conference
DIV – Division
SU – Strait Up

**LOCK** 14 **************
DENVER BRONCOS -8 over San Diego Chargers by 21

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Peyton is the best QB in the league with 21 TDs and 6 INTS

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I am letting you know in advance about the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning; With their second half schedule they will be on my **LOCK** list for the rest of the year. (Nov 5th) Think I am bias? Just know that you heard it here FIRST at TotalSportsBlog.com
Peyton Manning figured out the Chargers in the second half in the first match up this year. Peyton had the best comeback of the year against the Chargers. Denver is the much better team; The Broncos are 2nd in points for, 3rd in offensive yards, 10th on defense in points for and 6th in total yards against. The Chargers are 16th in points for, 22nd in total yards, 11th in points against and 7th in total yards against. Peyton Manning will destroy any defense, especially if it’s not ranked in the top three. The only way to mess with Peyton is to mix your coverages up and change at the snap of the ball, similar to what Atlanta did to him. San Diego is no as athletic on defense as the Falcons and this should be a very easy win for the Broncos If Denver beat the Chargers 35-0 in one half of play imagine what they are going to do on Sunday. 8 points? good luck to the Chargers!
Trends

John Fox is 8-1-1 ATS at home in games after scoring 34 or more points
Rivers is 0-5 ATS in games off back to back SU and ATS wins

**LOCK** 13 ************* (UPSET ALERT)
Chicago Bears over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers by 3

Team Captain Brian Urlacher refusing to lose two straight in their championship run this year.

This is going to be a great match-up to watch and even better to end the football week on Monday night. These are two of the leagues best defenses going at it in an NFC showdown. San Francisco has struggled all year with teams that play great defense. They barely beat the rams and did not cover, and the same with Seattle, both teams play great defense. They have their hands full on Monday as Captain Urlacher and the boys come to town. They have struggled against good defenses, so what do you think they are going to do offensively against the leagues best defense? If St. Louis and Seattle can come into Candlestick park and bully the 49ers around the Bears should be able to leave with a smash mouth upset win.

Trends

Chicago is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home

**LOCK** 12 ************ (UPSET ALERT)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +4 over Baltimore Ravens by 6

If you enjoy smash mouth football tune into this game. The Steelers O-line has been great, they will need a running game to win this match-up

Yes I know that Big Ben Roethlisberger is out, Yes I know that Troy Polamalu is out, and Yes I know its Byron at the helm this weekend. This is becoming one of the biggest rival AFC match-ups in the NFL. The Steelers have dominated this series and will continue to do so. Pittsburgh is slowly emerging back into the #1 defense in the league. They are playing very well and getting after the Quarterback without having to blitz many guys. Mike Tomlin will draw up a very basic and conservative game plan for Byron to execute. He will just have to hit the easy throws or throw the ball away. Look for Pittsburgh to pound the rock out and control the clock. If Tomlin finds early success in the running game they will be able to take complete control over this game. With all three running backs finally healthy the Roethlisberger-less Steelers will be just fine.

Trends

Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games verse Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games at home verse Baltimore

**LOCK** 11 ***********
New Orleans Saints -4.5 over Oakland Raiders by 17

The “Surgeon” is back and rolling and has complete control of his team

Oh when the Saints, Oh when the Saints go marching innnnnnn, which is the tune Brees will be singing all game long as he faces the leagues 32nd ranked defense in points against. Yes the Saints have looked bad this year, but not in their last 5 games. They are still struggling on defense and Carson Palmer has been very solid this year. This game should be a 4 point spread if Mike Goodson and Darren McFadden were playing. New Orleans will be able to sit back and expect the pass. Baltimore showed last week what the Raiders are really made of especially when they are missing a running game. If you look at their past games, on film the Saints struggle with teams that have success running the ball and are good at play action. The Raiders will not be able to execute in the running game and this very well could be a blow out in Northern California.

Trends

Oakland is 1-6 ATS against the Saints
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games

**LOCK**10 **********
Green Bay Packers -3 over Detroit Lions by 14

Aaron Rodgers ready to make the Lions defense look like a sack lunch

Detroit has been playing solid football this year, and have definitely improved their defense. This is a very funny spread to me as Green Bay is hot and a much better team. Megatron has been held in check this year and has not been able to find the end zone. One thing to watch for this weekend is Jordy Nelson, who put up 162 yards and three touchdowns in his last match-up against the Lions. I have been calling him the “Turf Monster” all week to friends who have asked “should I start Jordy this week who has been hurting?” In his last two games on turf he has put up 243 yards and four touchdowns on 17 catches.

Trends

Detroit is 1-5 ATS at home verses Green Bay
Green Bay is 12-1 SU against the Lions

9 ********* (UPSET ALERT)
Philadelphia Eagles +4 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS by 3

Vick leads the league in turnovers, will Nick Foles under the helm be bitter sweat?

I have been hearing people all week say the funniest thing “Now Vick is down this week the Redskins are going to kill the Eagles.” Not so fast my friends, when the leagues #1 player in turnovers is not playing, your team will improve. Washington has been terrible this year on defense, and Foles looks like a decent Quarterback option. He has been making good decisions and has shown Philadelphia a lot of positives at the helm. Philadelphia has great wide receivers who run crisp routes. Foles is more of a pocket passer who can pick the defense apart. This is a great week for foles as he is going up against the leagues 30th ranked defense in pass yards against. Washington has been stellar this year at stopping the run, so the Eagles will need to find a running game early to pull this upset. That will also help with keeping pressure off of the young Quarterback so he can make his reads and hit some play action. As bad as philly has looked they are still ranked 12th on defense in total yards against. This should be a close game and it feels as if the whole world is just handing the W to the Redskins. Foles is the spark the Eagles need and will get the job done against a weak Redskins defense.

See also Bears to Release Devin Hester

Trends

Mike Shanahan is 2-15 ATS when hosting opponents when they lost by 6+ points

8 ********

ATLANTA FALCONS -10 over Arizona Cardinals by 14

I feel like I should go back to the Vanilla Ice days and bump “ICE ICE BABY” while watching Matty Ice! He is very hard to defend.

Arizona has been playing great defense all year, and they are currently ranked 5th in points against. They are the #2 passing defense in the league in passing yards against. With that being said they still struggle with teams that spread the field out and can’t compete on the scoreboard. Atlanta is one of the best teams in the league when they go to a 4 or 5 wide-spread. They will be able to put Patrick Peterson on an island and take him completely out of the game, look for Atlanta to play smart and play the Cardinals 10 on 10 offensively. Atlanta just dropped their undefeated record last week, they will be coming out aggressive and pissed off. If I felt Arizona could put points on the board, with their defense I would consider the 10 points, but the fact that Skelton has been poor all year and they do not have much of a running game. I am going with Atlanta in a big win!

Trends

Arizona is 1-4 ATS when traveling to Atlanta

7 ******* (UPSET ALERT)

CAROLINA PANTHERS +2 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3

Steve Smith is hype to go against the leagues worst pass defense!

This is a scary pick, as one of my favorite players in the league Cam Newton looked as if he gave up last week. I am hoping he didn’t give up on the year and comes out playing hard. With that being said this is a great timing for Carolina to get some revenge and take their frustration out on the Bucs 32nd ranked pass defense in yards against. Cam last week found rhythm with his tight end Greg Olsen and also has been connecting with LaVell Hawkins. His go to guy is still Steve Smith and I projected Smith this week to have 100+ yards. The Panthers defense on paper is ranked 16th in total yards against, but I have seen them on film slowly come together over the past few weeks. They are much better then the stats show. Carolina should come out very aggressive and try to take an early lead. Cam will have his way and be able to move the ball through the air on the Bucs and pull the home dog win!

Trends

Buccaneers are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite
Carolina is 13-2 ATS when playing off of a loss of 35+ points

6 ******
DALLAS COWBOYS -7.5 over Cleveland Browns by 10

Felix jumping for joy as he may slowly be earning the starting job back!

Dallas has lost 3 of their last 5 games all in heated battles and all verse very quality opponents. They last to Baltimore by 2, New York Giants by 5 and Atlanta Falcons who they had on the ropes by 6. They did this all while playing below average football and really no running game. (except against Atlanta where they ran well) The Cowboys are slowly but surely coming together and playing good football. offensively they are very good when they establish a run. Felix Jones actually looks like the better back on film as he is running hard and showing great vision when he has to cut back. This is going to be a blow out in Dallas as the Cowboys desperately need to get back on the winning track and show they are truly a good team. The Browns are ranked 25th on offense in scoring and 20th on defense in points against. Dallas will handle the Browns on all three teams and dominate the scoreboard.

Trends

No good trends

5 *****
BUFFALO BILLS -1 over Miami Dolphins by 4

My article this week was released after Thursday Night football, but in my picks against TSB’s Hook I took the Bills.

Trends

4 ****
ST. LOUIS RAMS -3.5 over New York Jets by 7

Did the Rams finally get Steven Jackson rolling?

As weird as this may sound I have had a lot of success this year comparing match-ups of the Rams to the Seattle Seahawks. These two teams are very similar as they like to pound the ball out and they play good defense. I used this comparison last week when San Fran hosted the Rams. As I expected the Rams played a similar game to Seattle when they traveled to Candlestick. With that being said the Seahawks handled the Jets, just like the Rams will.

Trends

St Louis is 16-1 ATS when facing opponents off three straight losses coming off of a 10+ point loss
Rex Ryan is 0-6-1 ATS on the road in games off a double-digit loss.

3 ***
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -9 over Indianapolis Colts by 20

Can the Pats D be like the bakery and brew up some turnovers?

This was very tough for me because the spread is so high. Andrew Luck has been playing at a very high level this year and carrying the Colts. Then I took a look at the scheduling and the Colts have played the bottom 1/4 of the league the last 5 games. Not to mention they battled in these games. This will be a statement game for Belichick as they go up against a very mediocre Colts team. New England offense has been hot and they are rolling. They are amazing when it comes to confusing rookie Quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. New England already is at the top of the list in forced turnovers. The Patriots will have their way the Indianapolis and light up the scoreboard at home.

Trends

Indy is 8-15-2 ATS in their last 25 games against New England

2**

Houston Texans -14.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars by 24

Take a bow Arian take a bow…

Houston is for real and they impressed me last week grinding out a win in Chicago with terrible weather. The Bears have an amazing defense and Houston did not care. This match-up is going to be an absolute massacre as Jacksonville is 29th in the league in rushing yards against. Running will be the formula to victory behind the leagues best running back and offensive line. The Jaguars are also 24th in the league in passing yards against. Arian Foster in this match-up who might be the fantasy player of the week. Blaine Gabbert against one of the league’s top defenses? I will lay the double-digit points and take the Texans at home.

Trends

Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games

1*(UPSET ALERT)
Kansas City Chiefs +3 over Cincinnati Bengals by 3

Can Charles have a huge day against the Bengals?

Finally Romeo Crennel realizes that the Chiefs have to get Charles the ball 20+ times to have a chance at winning.(also for me to win in fantasy!) Jamaal Charles was able to have a 100 yard game against the leagues best rush defense. What do you think he is going to do against the leagues 20th ranked defense in yards against? The Bengals looks like they could be on fire as they killed the Giants last week, but they did drop four straight going into last week. This will be a close game and Arrowhead stadium is a very tough place to play. Cincinnati make their money on the big play and deep passes. Kansas City has three defensive backs who are very good in pass coverage.

Trends