NFL Week 4 Picks Against The Spread

eek four in the NFL season is underway with only two games that have a touchdown or higher spread.  There should be some high scoring affairs like the Colts and Jaguars in London (9:30 AM ET) and the Saints in San Diego taking on the Chargers.  If you like defense (or terrible offense) the Seahawks travel to NY (actually NJ) to take on the Jets and the Titans will be in Houston to take on a JJ Watt-less Texans.

Each week we try to pick some of the more intriguing match ups.  Whether it be a potential suicide pool pick, high-octane extravaganza, or a rivalry game.

I’ve been keeping a close eye on the lines all week at multiple sites like M88asia, hoping to grab that extra 1/2 point where it is available.

Early Game Picks (1 PM ET)

Panthers at Falcons (+3)

Something just isn’t right with the Carolina Panthers so far this season. Could it be all of those hits that Cam Newton took in the season opener in Denver? Maybe. He just doesn’t look like the 2015 NFL MVP version of Cam Newton. Last week at home against the Vikings, #1 WR Kelvin Benjamin only saw ONE target the entire game and came away with ZERO yards. While the Falcons have only 3 sacks so far through three games, the Panthers have allowed the second most in the league so far. Keeping Cam upright is going to be a huge priority. The Falcons are going to have to keep feeding their two-headed RB core. The Panthers are allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt this season, meaning that Julio Jones might struggle getting open down field, especially not being 100% healthy. Don’t forget that it was in Atlanta last year where the Panthers dreams of an undefeated season came crashing down in week 16. I like the Falcons this weekend. Take the points at home, especially in a divisional game.
PICK: Falcons +3

Lions (-3) at Bears

Did you see the Sunday night game last week? The Bears might not win three games this season. Backup QB Bryan Hoyer will be under center again for the Bears with a gimpy Alshon Jeffrey jogging around on the outside. Starting RB Jeremy Langford is out 4 to 6 weeks with an ankle injury to go along with nearly half of their defensive starters being hurt as well. For the Lions, QB Matt Stafford might be playing the best football of his career. In his past 10 games, Stafford has only thrown the ball to the other team 3 times, while racking up 24 TD passes. The most telling stat for Stafford is probably his completion percentage. Right now he is completing the highest percentage of his career (67.5%), and that is without Hall Of Famer Calvin Johnson to throw to.
PICK: Lions -3

Late Game Pick (4 PM ET)

Broncos -3 at Buccaneers

How this game isn’t a 10 point spread boggles my mind. The defending Super Bowl Champs roll into Tampa Bay with the best defense in the game. I’m not worried about statistics through three games. If you watch the games, you know that they are the best. 1st year starting QB Trevor Siemian is coming off an impressive 4 TD game against the Bengals. I’m sure no one was expecting that kind of performance, but all sings are pointing up for the youngster. The biggest question heading into this game for the Buccaneers is which Jameis Winston will show up this week? Is it the one who threw 4 TD’s against the Falcons? The one who threw 4 INT’s against the Cardinals? Or maybe it’s the one who threw 3 TD’s against the Rams? I’m going to lean towards the middle one this week. I just don’t trust the kid against this crew. Doug Martin isn’t there to hand the ball off to this week. It’s highly doubtful that receiving back Charles Simms is going to be able to garner enough respect running the ball to make play action too effective. Easiest money this weekend. PICK: Broncos -3

Here are the rest of this week’s picks:

“London” Jaguars +2.5 vs Colts – This is basically a home game for the Jags…right?
Browns +8 at Redskins – The Redskins are a bad team. The Browns are just a little worse.
Bills +6 at Patriots – Which QB will play for the Pats??
Jets +2.5 vs Seattle – Russell Wilson will be hammered all day long.
Houston – 5 vs Titans – The Titans have shown nothing aside from DeMarco Murray this season.
Ravens -3 vs Raiders – The Raiders at 1PM on the east coast…NEVER a good thing
49ers +2 vs Dallas – No Dez for the Cowboys will make for a FG or less game
Chargers -4 vs Saints – Just take the over and call it a day
Cardinals -8 vs Rams – The Rams have shown me absolutely nothing so far. Good luck scoring a TD.
Steelers -5 vs Chiefs – Primetime at home. Love the Steelers here. 200 yds for Antonio Brown?
Giants +5 at Vikings – Vikings pass rush will be too much for Eli and Co. at the end.