2013-2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball Mid-Season Update

The Nostradamus of NCAA Men’s Basketball is back to give you my mid-season update to my 2013-2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball Preview, All-American and Final Four Predictions article.  I told you Arizona would roll this season, and correctly predicted the demise of Louisville, Michigan, UNC, Gonzaga, and VCU.  But I didn’t see everything coming as I don’t have no crystal ball (Sublime reference), so let’s check out the current rankings and update my Final Four and All-American predictions.

USA Today Coaches Poll
RK TEAM RECORD PTS
1 Arizona (30) 17-0 798
2 Syracuse (1) 16-0 766
3 Wisconsin 16-0 724
4 Michigan State (1) 15-1 718
5 Wichita State 17-0 666
6 Villanova 15-1 598
7 Florida 13-2 573
8 Oklahoma State 14-2 517
9 Ohio State 15-2 516
10 Iowa State 14-1 495
11 San Diego State 14-1 481
12 Kentucky 12-3 424
13 Baylor 13-2 413
14 Louisville 14-3 393
15 Massachusetts 14-1 330
16 Iowa 14-3 297
17 Memphis 12-3 274
18 Kansas 11-4 272
19 Creighton 14-2 216
20 Duke 12-4 163
21 Pittsburgh 15-1 144
22 Colorado 14-3 103
23 Cincinnati 15-2 87
24 Gonzaga 14-3 82
25 UCLA 13-3 74
Others receiving votes: Saint Louis 68, Oregon 51, Missouri 43, Oklahoma 39, Kansas State 15, Michigan 9, New Mexico 9, California 9, Connecticut 8, George Washington 6, Harvard 6, Southern Miss 5, Virginia 4, Virginia Commonwealth 2, Xavier 2

Teams Ranked Too High:

#3 Wisconsin, #6 Villanova, #13 Baylor, #14 Louisville, #15 UMass, #22 Colorado

My assessment of the current rankings are a little different than pre-season, as these teams have obviously won enough games to earn their current rankings.  When I say these teams are ranked too high, it’s not because I think they suck, it’s because I expect them to drop lower before the NCAA tournament.  Wisconsin will be a 2 seed at best, not a 1 seed as their current ranking would suggest.  The buzzsaw that is the B1G will put a blemish on their currently perfect record.  Villanova has been surprisingly good this season, and faces a weak Big East schedule, but there are at least 10 teams better than the #6 Wildcats.  I was expecting much more of a drop after Baylor got smacked by the Cyclones.  Louisville will fall into the 20′s where they belong, while I expect UMass and Colorado to fall out of the rankings completely by the end of conference play (poor Colorado just lost their leading scorer due to a torn ACL).

Teams Ranked Too Low:

#4 Michigan State, #7 Florida*, #12 Kentucky, #16 Iowa, #18 Kansas

I expect the Spartans to enter the NCAA tournament as the #2 overall seed.  Florida should creep up 3-4 spots higher in the rankings (*if blue-chip recruit Chris Walker is declared eligible) by tourney time.  Kentucky is a young team finally hitting their stride, and should be a #2 seed after they roll the rest of the way nearly unblemished (I expect them to split games with Florida). Iowa should have handed Wisconsin their first loss of the season, but their coach lost his cool.  They rebounded by waxing Ohio State AT Ohio State… how the hell are they ranked lower than UMass?!? Kansas is due an immediate jump in the rankings as they’ll have disposed of a strong Iowa State team by the time I finish writing this post.

Contenders: 

Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Florida, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Iowa State, Kentucky, Kansas

As you can see, not much has changed from my contenders list I dropped back in November (Michigan State, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, Duke, Florida, Ohio State, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, Memphis).  I’ve added Iowa State and dropped Duke and Memphis from my list.  While Duke’s Jabari Parker is better than I expected, their lack of frontcourt depth should put an end to their tournament hopes as I expect a first or 2nd round exit (and I’m a Duke fan. Just keeping it real).  While I still expect Arizona to cut down the nets, any one of these teams can make some noise come March.

Pretenders:

Wisconsin, Villanova, San Diego State, Louisville

Wisconsin makes a real bad habit out of choking in the tournament.  Madison is one of the most difficult places to play in the nation, and unfortunately for the Badgers NCAA Tournament games aren’t held there.  Villanova will hang around the 5-15 rankings for a bit as the Big East is one of the weaker “power” conferences, but an early exit in the tournament to an FGCU-like team should not come as a shock in March.  SDSU has passed 3 out of 4 tests with flying colors (if you count Marquette as a test… even though we shouldn’t), and is well coached, but have no real shot at an NCAA title.  As for Louisville, the decline will continue.  I didn’t like them this year, even with Chane Behanan on the roster.  Without him, they’re kaput.

All-American Predictions:

First Team:

Keith Appling, Michigan State

Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State

Jabari Parker, Duke

Doug McDermott, Creighton

Julius Randle, Kentucky

Second Team:

Aaron Craft, Ohio State

Shabazz Napier, UConn

Tyler Ennis, Syracuse

Andrew Wiggins, Kansas

Aaron Gordon, Arizona

Player of the Year: 

Doug McDermott, Creighton

McDermott has been a 1 man show this year for Creighton (as expected), and has shown the ability to take over games as he puts the team on his back.  While I initially thought he was more a product of a system where the coach has his son take all the shots, I’ve come to realize he takes all the shots because he’s the player on the floor most likely to make them.  His throwback game reminds me of a middle-class (not a poor-man’s) Larry Bird.  He won’t be the best pro out of this year’s crop, but he’s been the best player in Men’s College Basketball this season, no question.

Final Four Predictions:

Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Florida

I’ve bumped Kentucky and Oklahoma State out of my Final Four prediction (although they may very well still get there) and gave the nods to Syracuse and surging Florida.  As long as the brackets allow for it, this very well may be the teams I see when I go down to Arlington in April for the Final Four.

National Championship Game: Michigan State VS Arizona

It’s going to take an experienced coach to best Jim Boeheim and the Syracuse zone, and Tom Izzo is just that coach.  Arizona should handle Florida on their way to the title game.

NCAA 2013 Champion:

Arizona

My opinion hasn’t changed.  The Arizona Wildcats might go undefeated this season.  I still expect the ‘Cats frontcourt to be too much for opposing teams to handle come tourney time.